Workforce Forecasting for Seasonal Support Volumes
By Red Shore Editorial | 2024-02-11
TL;DR: Forecasting methods to plan staffing capacity through predictable demand peaks.
Seasonal forecasting breaks when teams plan for average volume and hope for the best.
Peak periods are not average periods. They are volatility periods.
What Usually Goes Wrong
- Promotions are announced, but staffing plans are not updated quickly.
- Forecasts ignore channel mix shifts (chat spikes, email overflow, voice surges).
- Contingency staffing is treated as optional.
A Better Forecasting Approach
- Build baseline plus event-based overlays.
- Forecast by interval, not just daily totals.
- Run three scenarios: expected, high, and stress case.
- Pre-assign actions for each scenario before launch.
Tradeoff to Expect
More scenario planning means more upfront effort. But it prevents expensive reactive overtime and service-level misses later.
If You Do One Thing This Month
Run one retrospective on your last high-volume period and list where demand assumptions were wrong. Use that list to build your next scenario plan.